President Bola Tinubu’s recent directive to “crash” food prices in Nigeria has sparked widespread criticism from agricultural experts and stakeholders who warn the move could harm local farmers and jeopardize the country’s agricultural sector. Announced in September 2025, the directive tasks the Federal Executive Council (FEC) to develop immediate measures to reduce soaring food prices nationwide. However, experts argue that simply forcing down prices without addressing underlying production challenges risks crippling local agriculture and increasing Nigeria’s dependence on food imports.

The food import bill in Nigeria surged significantly in the second quarter of 2025, reaching about ₦1.18 trillion—a 33 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Despite government efforts, rising input costs, insecurity, and infrastructure deficits make local food production increasingly costly and challenging. Adebowale Onafowora, Founder and MD of BIC Farms Concepts, observed that farmers are already burdened by high costs for fertilizers and seeds, compounded by insecurity and poor transportation that leads to produce spoilage. He warned forcing farmers to sell at reduced prices without fixing these structural problems would squeeze profit margins, reduce supply, and ultimately exacerbate price inflation in the long term. Onafowora also pointed out the threat cheap subsidized food imports pose to Nigerian farmers and called for a focus on precision agriculture and value-added products to compete effectively.

Sani Danladi, National Secretary of the National Tomato Growers, Processors and Marketers Association of Nigeria (NATPAN), described the directive as “ill-advised.” He highlighted the current situation where prices for key agricultural products like a bag of paddy rice (₦40,000), fresh maize (₦30,000), and a bag of onions (₦12,000 for 120kg) make farming barely profitable. Danladi warned that without government interventions supporting local input production and processing industries, many farmers might abandon agriculture altogether for urban migration, worsening food insecurity.

Structural obstacles such as reliance on imported farm inputs, lack of affordable credit, rural insecurity, and inadequate storage facilities further undermine agriculture. Senior consultant Oyewole Okewole of FutuX Agri-Consult Limited stressed that post-harvest losses and the absence of government mechanisms to purchase surplus produce make imported foods cheaper and more attractive to consumers than locally grown alternatives. He called for farmer registration, anti-corruption in support programs, and marketing board revival to stabilize supply and prices.

On the economic front, Tunde Banjoko, Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) Agro Allied Group, agreed with Tinubu’s objective to lower food costs but cautioned that “crashing” prices through imports without supporting farmers is unsustainable and will discourage domestic production while inflating the nation’s import bill.

The directive was announced amidst growing food inflation concerns across Nigeria with pressure on the government to ease the cost of staples impacting households financially. Yet, experts agree that tackling root causes such as agricultural input costs, rural insecurity, infrastructure development, and supply chain inefficiencies is imperative to sustainably bring down food prices without jeopardizing farmers’ livelihoods or national food security.

In summary, while the President’s directive aims to provide immediate relief on food prices, the agricultural sector’s complex challenges require comprehensive reforms beyond price controls. Sustained government investment in rural security, local input production, storage infrastructure, and credit access will be crucial to support farmers, reduce import reliance, and stabilize food prices over time. The next steps for the government should involve stakeholder consultations and structural policy reforms to protect Nigeria’s farmers and ensure affordable, accessible food for all citizens. Without such balanced approaches, the well-intentioned directive risks unintended economic and social consequences.