President Bola Tinubu declared that “the worst is over” for Nigeria during his speech commemorating the country’s 65th Independence Day on October 1, 2025, acknowledging that the nation is beginning to reap the benefits of difficult economic reforms aimed at stabilizing and growing the economy.

In his address, President Tinubu cited Nigeria’s second-quarter GDP growth of 4.23%, the fastest in four years and an improvement over the 3.19% growth in the first quarter of 2025 and 3.48% in the same quarter of 2024. This growth was spurred largely by a 20.42% expansion in the oil sector, reflecting increased crude oil production averaging 1.68 million barrels per day, up from 1.41 million barrels in the previous year. The oil production rise aligns closely with Nigeria’s goal to meet and exceed OPEC targets, with recent figures showing a continued trend to 1.71 million barrels daily by July 2025, aided by enhanced security and operational efficiencies.

On inflation, the President highlighted a significant drop to around 20% in August 2025, marking the lowest level in three years. This decline follows months of successive reductions in the headline inflation rate, easing from over 33% in mid-2024 to 21.88% in July and further down to 20.12% by August. Tighter monetary policies, foreign exchange stability, and structural reforms have played central roles in this improvement, providing much-needed relief to Nigerian households grappling with rising living costs for several years.

Tinubu emphasized the necessity of earlier tough decisions, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the consolidation of the foreign exchange rate, which were initially unpopular but vital to “reset” the economy. He stated, “Less than three years later, the fruits of those tough but vital choices are starting to show.” The reforms have redirected resources toward education, healthcare, national security, agriculture, and critical infrastructure, including roads, railways, airports, and seaports.

The government rolled out a significant social investment initiative, allocating over 330 billion naira (approximately $900 million) to support eight million vulnerable households, aiming to cushion the hardest-hit Nigerians while boosting domestic demand and economic inclusion. Additionally, Tinubu underscored ongoing infrastructure projects across the country to improve physical development and economic connectivity, which are key to sustaining long-term growth.

Economists and experts generally welcome these signs of recovery but remain cautious. According to PwC’s mid-year economic outlook, Nigeria’s GDP growth is projected to be around 3.4% for 2025, supported by higher crude oil production and stronger activity in finance, ICT, construction, and real estate. Inflation is expected to ease to around 21.46% by the end of 2025, reflecting continued monetary discipline and currency stability. However, the outlook flags fiscal vulnerabilities linked to weak revenue mobilization and high debt servicing costs.

For ordinary Nigerians, the recovery remains a mixed experience. Price pressures persist in many sectors, keeping daily living costs elevated despite the headline inflation drop. Yet some sectors such as agriculture and services have seen modest gains, and trade surpluses for five quarters indicate improved export performance and foreign exchange reserves, which hit $42 billion—levels not seen since 2019.

As Nigeria marks 65 years of independence, President Tinubu’s optimistic message stresses resilience and progress but acknowledges ongoing challenges. The government is committed to deepening reforms, expanding infrastructure, and enhancing social welfare to translate macroeconomic gains into tangible improvements in citizens’ lives.

In summary, Nigeria’s economy is showing clear signs of stabilization with robust GDP growth, falling inflation, and rising oil production after years of hardship. The next steps involve sustaining these positive trends, improving transparency in social spending, and ensuring inclusive development so that economic recovery benefits all Nigerians as the nation looks toward its future.