Thousands of workers across Africa face an uncertain future as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the key US-Africa trade deal, is set to expire on September 30, 2025, with no confirmed renewal in sight. This 25-year-old agreement has provided duty-free access for thousands of African products to enter the US market, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs across over 30 eligible sub-Saharan African countries.

AGOA was enacted in 2000 to strengthen trade ties between the United States and eligible African nations. By granting tariff-free access to nearly 7,000 products, it helped key sectors such as textiles, agriculture, and raw materials flourish in countries including South Africa, Lesotho, Madagascar, and Botswana. For many workers, AGOA has been a lifeline, providing economic stability and supporting livelihoods.

However, the expiration of AGOA threatens to unravel these economic gains. Without renewal, countries currently benefiting from duty-free US access will face tariffs ranging from 10% to as high as 50%, depending on the product and country. For exporters, this could mean a sharp loss of competitiveness in the US market, leading to stalled production, shuttered factories, and widespread job losses.

Malick Sane, an international trade expert based in Dakar, expressed concern: “African businesses will encounter substantial challenges maintaining their foothold in the American market, which could lead to a reduction in production and significant job cuts.” South Africa alone risks losing over 35,000 jobs in its citrus export sector, while Madagascar faces a steep 47% tariff on its textiles. Lesotho, strongly reliant on garment exports, was threatened by a tariff as high as 50%, later reduced to 15%, severely impacting its economy.

The current US administration has signaled support for a one-year extension of AGOA, but with the deal set to expire imminently, prospects for a long-term renewal remain unclear. Attempts to pass an extension bill have stalled in Congress amid wider political gridlock. The previous Trump administration’s imposition of reciprocal tariffs earlier in 2025 further complicated the picture by negating some AGOA benefits.

Experts note this moment as simultaneously a crisis and an opportunity. Economist Faba Soko from Dakar advocates viewing the end of AGOA as a chance for African nations to diversify trading partners and reduce dependency on US markets. “Africa should seize this historic moment to move from aid dependency toward economic autonomy,” he said.

For thousands of workers and their families, however, the immediate question remains: what comes next? Increased tariffs risk job losses with cascading social impacts, undermining progress made over decades. Governments and exporters are urgently seeking negotiations with the US for exemptions or shorter-term relief to mitigate the shock.

In sum, the impending expiration of AGOA is a pivotal moment for US-Africa trade relations. With critical livelihoods and sectors at risk, the coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether Africa’s economies can maintain market access or face debilitating setbacks. Policymakers, businesses, and workers alike await swift action to address the trade deal’s uncertain future and forge sustainable paths forward.